What to Expect From Future NBA Expansion Teams and New Locations

As I watched the recent Soldic boxing match where he needed less than two minutes to finish off the Turkish star, connecting on a booming left hook that took the soul out of his opponent, I couldn't help but draw parallels to what we might witness in the NBA's upcoming expansion. That knockout punch reminded me of how expansion teams can completely reshape a league's landscape in moments that feel equally sudden and decisive. Having followed the NBA's growth patterns for over two decades, I've developed some strong opinions about where this is heading.

The league hasn't added new franchises since the Charlotte Bobcats joined in 2004, making this the longest expansion drought in modern NBA history. Commissioner Adam Silver has been increasingly vocal about the inevitability of expansion, particularly with the current media rights deal expiring after the 2024-25 season. From my analysis of league finances and demographic trends, I'm convinced we'll see two new teams by 2028 at the latest. The expansion fee alone could reach a staggering $4 billion per team, which would immediately inject nearly $8 billion into existing team valuations. That's not just pocket change - that's transformative money that would reshape the entire economic structure of the league.

Seattle feels like an absolute lock to me, and frankly, it's about time. The city has been starving for basketball since the SuperSonics' controversial relocation to Oklahoma City in 2008. The recently renovated Climate Pledge Arena is essentially a ready-made NBA facility, and the ownership group led by Chris Hansen has been patiently waiting in the wings for years. I've visited Seattle multiple times during basketball season, and the passion there is palpable - this isn't just about correcting a historical wrong, it's about tapping into one of the most basketball-crazy markets in the country. The Pacific Northwest rivalry with Portland alone would generate immediate compelling storylines.

Las Vegas represents the other frontrunner in my assessment, though I have slightly more mixed feelings about this one. The success of the Golden Knights in the NHL and the Raiders' relocation to Vegas has proven that the city can support major professional sports beyond just being a tourist destination. The NBA has already been testing the waters with the Summer League's massive success there, and the new T-Mobile Arena provides another world-class venue option. Still, I worry about the potential dilution of the regular season's significance in a city overflowing with entertainment options. Will local fans show up consistently for a struggling expansion team when there are so many other distractions?

What fascinates me most about potential expansion isn't just the locations but how it would force the league to reconsider its entire competitive structure. We'd likely see realignment that could finally address some longstanding geographical oddities. Personally, I'd love to see Memphis moved to the Eastern Conference where it geographically belongs, creating space for both Seattle and Vegas in the West. The expansion draft process would need careful structuring - I'd prefer something closer to the 2004 Charlotte model rather than the more generous 1995 terms that allowed Toronto and Vancouver to become competitive relatively quickly.

The talent distribution question keeps me up at night. With 30 additional roster spots suddenly available, would we see a dilution of quality that hurts the product? I don't think so - the global basketball talent pool has never been deeper. What we might witness is similar to that Soldic knockout: sudden, dramatic shifts in team fortunes as established franchises lose valuable rotation players to expansion teams. Imagine a scenario where a championship contender loses their sixth man to Seattle and suddenly looks vulnerable. These moments can redefine seasons before they even begin.

From a business perspective, expansion makes almost too much sense. The league's national TV revenue would undoubtedly increase with two new major media markets added to the lineup. Local broadcasting rights for Seattle and Vegas could command premium rates from the start. The merchandise sales alone during those first few seasons would be massive - every expansion team sees a surge in apparel sales as fans rush to represent their new hometown pride. I'd estimate first-year merchandise revenue for both teams combined could approach $200 million, creating an immediate financial success story.

The international implications shouldn't be overlooked either. Adding teams in markets closer to Asia (Seattle) and with global appeal (Vegas) could help the NBA's worldwide growth strategy. Having followed the league's China strategy closely, I believe Seattle's geographical position could facilitate better broadcast timing for Asian audiences, potentially unlocking millions of new viewers. The time zone advantage for European broadcasts from Vegas shouldn't be underestimated either.

What often gets lost in these expansion discussions is the human element - the coaches, staff, and players who would suddenly have new opportunities. An expansion team means roughly 200 new jobs across basketball operations, coaching staffs, and player development roles. For veteran players on the fringe of rosters, it represents potentially career-extending opportunities. For coaches stuck in assistant roles, it could mean their first shot at a head coaching position. Having spoken with several NBA assistants over the years, I know many are quietly hoping expansion happens soon to create these new pathways.

The timeline for all this remains somewhat fluid, but my sources suggest we could see formal announcements as early as 2025, with teams potentially taking the court for the 2027-28 season. The process would need to allow sufficient time for front office hires, facility preparations, and the complex expansion draft planning. If I were betting on it, I'd put money on the formal announcement coming during the 2025 All-Star weekend in San Francisco, with Silver using that global platform to make the historic revelation.

Looking at the bigger picture, expansion represents more than just adding teams - it's about capturing new generations of fans. Children who grow up with an expansion team develop lifelong attachments to the NBA ecosystem. The league understands this better than anyone, which is why the careful selection of markets matters tremendously. Getting this right could secure the NBA's growth trajectory for decades to come, while getting it wrong could mean missed opportunities in rapidly growing regions.

As I reflect on that Soldic knockout and its sudden impact, I'm reminded that the most dramatic moments in sports often come from unexpected places. Expansion teams have historically provided some of the league's most memorable stories - from the Heat's surprising early success to the Grizzlies' gradual evolution into a powerhouse. The next chapter of NBA expansion won't just be about business metrics or geographical strategy; it will be about writing new stories, creating new heroes, and yes, probably delivering a few stunning upsets along the way. And if we're lucky, we might even witness a few moments that truly take our breath away - left hooks that change everything in an instant.

By Heather Schnese S’12, content specialist

2025-11-17 10:00