Who Will Win the NBA All-Star Three Point Contest This Year?

As I sit here watching the latest NBA highlights, I can't help but get excited about the upcoming All-Star Weekend, particularly the Three-Point Contest. This year's competition feels different somehow - maybe it's the new generation of shooters redefining what's possible from beyond the arc, or perhaps it's the sheer volume of players who could legitimately walk away with the trophy. Having followed basketball religiously for over two decades, I've developed a pretty good sense for these things, and my gut tells me we're in for one of the most memorable three-point shootouts in recent history.

When analyzing potential winners, I always start with the numbers - they never lie, even if they sometimes surprise us. Stephen Curry, despite what some might call a "down year," is still shooting 42.3% from deep, which frankly is better than most players' career highs. Then there's Desmond Bane, who's been absolutely lights out at 44.7% while taking nearly eight attempts per game. But here's where things get interesting - sometimes we get too caught up in regular season statistics and forget that these All-Star events have their own unique rhythm and pressure. I remember watching players like Sumayah Sugapong - who finished with 11 points and four rebounds in a recent game before fouling out with three minutes to play - and thinking about how different players respond to pressure situations. That fouling out moment? It tells me something about how players handle high-stakes moments, and in the Three-Point Contest, mental fortitude matters just as much as shooting mechanics.

The format itself creates unexpected advantages and disadvantages. The five shooting spots, the money balls, the rack strategy - it all contributes to outcomes that sometimes defy conventional wisdom. Remember when Joe Harris beat Stephen Curry? Or when Kevin Love surprised everyone? I've noticed that players who thrive in these environments often share certain characteristics beyond just shooting percentage. They've got this almost rhythmic consistency in their motion, they don't rush even when the clock's winding down, and they maintain their form even after a couple of misses. Watching Tyrese Haliburton this season, I've been struck by how effortless his shooting looks - that smooth, repeatable motion that barely changes whether he's wide open or heavily contested. That's the kind of technique that wins these competitions.

What many casual fans don't realize is how much preparation goes into this specific event. These aren't just players showing up and winging it - they practice the specific rack arrangements, they time their transitions between stations, and they develop strategies for which racks to start with based on their hot zones. Damian Lillard, last year's winner, reportedly spent hours just practicing the corner threes because he knew that's where he tended to be weakest. That attention to detail is what separates contenders from pretenders. I've spoken with several NBA shooting coaches over the years, and they all emphasize the psychological component - the ability to reset after each shot rather than carrying the momentum (positive or negative) from one station to the next.

My dark horse pick? Malik Beasley. He's shooting a ridiculous 46.2% from three this season, and while he doesn't have the name recognition of some other contestants, he's got that quiet confidence that often thrives in these settings. I've noticed he barely changes expression whether he makes five in a row or misses five in a row - that emotional stability is gold in pressure situations. Then there's the hometown factor - if Indiana's own Tyrese Haliburton gets the nod, the crowd energy could genuinely lift his performance by 10-15%. I've seen it happen before where local players feed off that adrenaline and enter that magical "zone" where everything seems to move in slow motion.

Of course, we can't ignore the defending champion. Damian Lillard has this unique ability to elevate his game when the lights are brightest, and his experience from last year's win gives him a psychological edge that's hard to quantify but very real. His range is practically unlimited, which means he doesn't need to plant his feet perfectly at every station - he can step back a foot or two if needed and still drain it with confidence. That adaptability matters more than people think, especially when you consider how different each arena's shooting background can be.

If I had to put money on it today, I'd go with Curry - not just because he's the greatest shooter of all time, but because he seems to have that extra motivation this season. There's something about the way he's been talking about All-Star Weekend that suggests he's not just showing up to participate. He wants to reclaim what he sees as his throne, and when Curry gets that determined look in his eyes, he's virtually unstoppable. My prediction? He'll break the contest record with 31 points in the final round, edging out Haliburton in what will become an instant classic.

The beauty of the Three-Point Contest is its beautiful simplicity - five balls, five spots, one winner. Yet within that simplicity lies incredible complexity and nuance that only true students of the game can fully appreciate. Whatever happens, we're guaranteed spectacular shooting, unforgettable moments, and another chapter in the evolving story of NBA excellence. And who knows - maybe we'll witness another performance that makes us rethink what's humanly possible from beyond the arc.

By Heather Schnese S’12, content specialist

2025-11-21 10:00